Israel Could Be Plunged into Civil War: US Intelligence Report

According to an investigative report, a classified U.S. intelligence report warns that deepening political, economic, and social divisions could expose Israel to the risk of civil war or the collapse of the state. The independent investigative news outlet Drop Site News reported, citing two U.S. sources familiar with the material, that this analysis, titled "Internal Fracture," was prepared in August by the CIA's "Red Cell," a specialist unit mandated to challenge prevailing intelligence consensus and provide alternative strategic perspectives. The review outlined a highly unstable combination of internal pressures facing the country ahead of the parliamentary elections held on October 27. Key points of conflict include severe economic decline, a massive increase in defense spending, rising settler violence in the occupied West Bank, and intense social anger over the exemption of ultra-Orthodox men from mandatory military service. The report identified Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's fight to remain in power as a fundamental driver of constitutional and political instability. Years of genocide in Gaza and the ongoing continuous wars in Lebanon and Iran have further deepened existing social divisions, with a large number of reservists returning from prolonged deployments suffering from severe psychological trauma. Military conscription has become one of the country's most severe internal weaknesses, as the repeated mobilization of reservists has fueled public anger over the complete exemption maintained for the ultra-Orthodox community. Further exacerbating these internal pressures, the CIA document warned that growing international diplomatic isolation, symbolized by declining support within the United States, poses a risk of accelerating internal instability.