Putin may test NATO alliance through limited strike: report

According to US intelligence assessments, Russian President Vladimir Putin may attempt to test the resolve and unity of the alliance by launching a limited attack on a NATO member country over the next few years. This was stated by individuals familiar with the assessments.

US intelligence assessments have outlined several scenarios for potential escalation by Russia, ranging from cyberattacks to limited military incursions. CNN has been told by three individuals familiar with the reports that such actions could be designed to test NATO's commitment to collective defense under Article 5.

Sources say the scenarios do not necessarily involve a large-scale attack that would immediately prompt NATO to launch a full-scale military response. It is unclear whether or when Putin might adopt such a strategy.

One source suggested that Russia might be more likely to target the Baltic states or Poland. The Wall Street Journal first reported on the recent US intelligence assessments.

Sources say US and NATO officials believe that if Putin fails to find a way out of the war in Ukraine that preserves his reputation or dignity, he may consider escalating tensions with NATO. The timeframe for this could be anywhere from now to several years from now.

NATO's senior military spokesman, Martin O'Donnell, declined to comment on the classified intelligence assessments, but said the alliance is preparing for multiple potential scenarios. "NATO is watching the situation, and we are prepared to deter, defend, and take action as necessary, which we have demonstrated consistently," he said.

Over the past few years, Russia has been accused of numerous incidents of violating or probing the borders of NATO member countries. In May, a drone carrying explosive material crashed into a residential building in Romania during a Russian attack on a Ukrainian port, injuring two people.

In September, several Russian drones entered Polish airspace during a Russian attack on Ukraine, and were shot down by NATO fighter jets. These concerns come as separate investigations are underway into a drone found at Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany.

A US defense official based in Europe said the US believes the drone was from the Russian intelligence service and contained military-grade explosive material. German authorities are investigating the incident at Leipzig/Halle Airport. On Wednesday, police deployed a robot capable of handling explosive material on the runway, near a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane.

German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt said that while drone sightings and related hazards are not new, the discovery of an explosive-laden drone at an airport represents a new type of threat. Dobrindt said on Thursday that the drone could be linked to "foreign forces," without naming a country.

Germany's National Security Council, chaired by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, met on Friday to discuss the airport incident. The Kremlin did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the US intelligence assessments or the drone incident in Germany.

These intelligence assessments come as US officials are grappling with concerns about depleted stockpiles of key ammunition following a potential war with Iran, while civilian casualties continue to mount in Ukraine from Russian long-range attacks.

According to the United Nations, civilian casualties from Russian long-range attacks in Ukraine increased by 60% between January and June this year compared to the same period last year. In one night this week, at least 17 people were killed and dozens injured in Russian ballistic and anti-ship missile attacks, with Ukraine's air defense system failing to intercept any of the missiles.

Individuals familiar with the matter say the pressure on US interceptor missiles and other ammunition stockpiles is affecting military planning for potential future conflicts, including a possible clash between Russia and NATO or a war with China in the Pacific.

Six individuals familiar with a cabinet meeting at Camp David last week say President Joe Biden has privately expressed concern in recent days about reports that US ammunition stockpiles have been depleted due to a war with Iran. However, Biden said on Thursday in a post on the social media platform Truth Social that the US has a "tremendous amount" of ammunition and is producing and delivering more weapons.

The latest intelligence assessments come as US-led diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine have stalled. Western sanctions have put pressure on the Russian economy, but so far have failed to halt Moscow's military campaign.