US-Iran tension sees another pause, has war really been averted or is it a new strategy?

US President Donald Trump unexpectedly halted a US attack on Iran on Friday, but it is unclear why the decision was made and how long the pause will last.
Analysts say it is premature to consider the pause a complete ceasefire, as tensions in the region remain.
According to political analysts, the pause comes at a time when US efforts to mobilize Iran in the southern maritime route of the Strait of Hormuz have not been successful.
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Falih Zaydi's mediation efforts have also been unsuccessful, as he visited Tehran last week after a visit to the White House, where US President Trump called him a great leader, but Iran rejected further mediation, accusing the US of adopting an illogical, expansionist, and hegemonic policy.
Experts say the US can use the pause to reorganize its war strategy, while the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains a major challenge for Washington.
A diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that if President Trump really wants to stop the war, he would also announce the end of the maritime blockade on Iran.
On the other hand, Tehran has made it clear that it will not accept any maritime blockade and will not return the Strait of Hormuz to its pre-war state.
Experts believe that the current silence is likely a pause before a major conflict, as President Trump still wants to take the war to its logical conclusion, although a recent US survey found that 68% of Americans do not consider the war necessary.
According to another diplomat, regardless of the outcome of the midterm elections, the possibility of a significant change in US policy towards Iran is low.
He said that if the Republicans are successful, President Trump will consider it a vindication of his policies, and even if they lose, he may still try to achieve his war goals.
Meanwhile, the US and its allies are imposing further economic sanctions on Iran, while the US and Britain's designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization is also seen as a significant sign of increasing tensions between the two countries.
Analysts say the current situation indicates that tensions in the region are not easing and the situation could worsen in the coming days.
According to Iran, a Ukrainian attack last week killed one Iranian sailor and injured another, after which Tehran summoned the Ukrainian diplomatic representative to the Foreign Ministry, calling the action a hostile and criminal act.
This development comes at a time when a temporary pause has occurred after 13 days of continuous US attacks on Iran.
Analysts say the Caspian Sea, which has long been considered a relatively safe maritime route for Iran, could potentially become a new front.
Iran is already under pressure on its southern coast, where the US has maintained a maritime blockade around the Strait of Hormuz, while Houthi rebel operations in Yemen are affecting shipping in the Red Sea, and increased risks in the Caspian Sea could put further pressure on Iran's key trade and strategic maritime routes.
After Iran supplied Russia with Shahed drones in 2022, relations between Tehran and Kyiv became severely strained.
Ukraine claims that Russia has used Iranian-made drones, which have been improved, to launch thousands of attacks on Ukrainian cities, while Ukrainian forces claim to have shot down over 44,000 Iranian-designed drones.
Analysts say the attack in the Caspian Sea is extremely worrying for Iran, as it suggests the conflict could spread to another maritime front.
Iran has not yet announced any potential retaliation against Ukraine, but Iranian observers say Ukraine is within range of Iran's missile and drone systems, giving Tehran various options for a military response.
Reports say Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan, and other regional mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire to Washington and Tehran to resume negotiations on a memorandum of understanding (MoU) reached last month.
Experts say the incident in the Caspian Sea could be an attempt to increase economic and military pressure on Iran, and if Iran's northern maritime route also becomes insecure, it could affect energy exports, trade activities, and military supply lines, potentially giving the US a relative diplomatic advantage in future negotiations.
On the other hand, former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Michael Mulroy says that as long as Iran maintains its influence over the Strait of Hormuz, the situation will not be easy for the US.
He said that currently, there are no signs of significant progress in negotiations, while Iran also appears to be satisfied with maintaining its control over the Strait of Hormuz.